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The Ocean and Atmosphere in the Maritime Continent and Their Impacts
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Contrasting impacts of two types of El Nino on the yield of early rice in Southern China
P-P5-06-S
Runnan Sun* , Beijing Normal University
Jianping Li, Beijing Normal University
Juan Feng, Beijing Normal University
Zhaolu Hou, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Presenter Email: heavenjazz@163.com |
| Rice production in Southern China (SC), which amounts to almost one-third of China’s total production, has been shown to be closely associated with climate change. This study examines the contrasting effects of the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño on early rice yields in SC during boreal early summer (May–June–July) using composite and correlation analysis, and grid cell early rice yield data covering the period 1982–2006. During EP El Niño events, the early rice yields reduce in southeastern SC but increase in northwestern SC, whereas during CP El Niño events the early rice yields show a moderate increase across the entire SC region. Over nearly half of SC, the impacts of EP and CP El Niño events on early rice yields show significant differences in terms of harvested areas. The potential mechanism leading to the significantly different effects of the two types of El Niño on early rice yield in SC is investigated here. During boreal early summer, CP El Niño significantly decreases rainfall across SC, which favors early rice yields. In contrast, EP El Niño significantly increases rainfall in eastern SC, resulting in unfavorable growing condition for early rice production. Moreover, although temperature does affect early rice yields in SC, the differences in yield between the two types of El Niño events are related mainly to differences in rainfall. Our finding highlights the importance of investigating the impacts of two types of El Niño on crop yields separately with the increase occurring frequency of CP El Niño under the circumstance of global change. Therefore, our study deepens the current understanding of the relationship between global change and food security. |
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