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The Ocean and Atmosphere in the Maritime Continent and Their Impacts
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Asymmetry of the predictability limit of the warm ENSO phase
P-P5-02-S
Zhaolu Hou* , State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10029, China
Jianping Li, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Ruiqiang Ding, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10029, China
Christina Karamperidou, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2525 Correa Rd, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
Wansuo Duan, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10029, China
Ting Liu, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Hangzhou, China
Jie Feng, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA
Presenter Email: hzl@lasg.iap.ac.cn |
| A nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method based on monthly sea surface temperature data is employed to explore the predictability limit of warm ENSO events. Results using observational data show an asymmetry of the predictability limit between the developing and decaying stages of the warm ENSO phase. To wit, predictability of the developing stage of warm ENSO events is found to approach a limit of 10 months, less than that of the mature and decaying stages. This asymmetrical predictability limit is also found in a long climate model simulation and may explain the asymmetry in operational forecast skill of warm ENSO events. Through exploring the error growth rate as represented by NLLE and the instantaneous error growth rate, it is shown that error growth, especially during the first eight-month lead forecasts, is the primary contributor to the asymmetry of the predictability limit of warm ENSO events. |
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