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Pushing the frontiers of marine ecological modeling: where are we now and how can we move forward?
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End-to-end models: Linking physics and biogeochemistry to fish (Invited)
Monday 7th @ 1330-1350, Conference Room 5
Kenneth A Rose* , University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (Horn Point Lab) USA
Presenter Email: krose@umces.edu |
| End-to-end models are receiving increasing attention as a quantitative tool for investigating marine ecosystem responses to management actions, effects of stressors, and climate variation. End-to-end models typically combine submodels of physics (hydrodynamics), lower trophic levels (nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton, NPZ), and upper trophic levels (fish, birds, fishers) into a single modeling framework. Such models are attractive because they can simulate a wide variety of effects, including ecosystem responses to interannual environmental variation, changes in fishing, and episodic and long-term trends in climate conditions. Two emerging areas with end-to-end modeling are how to link the biogeochemistry to the fish and how to represent the behavioral movement of the organisms. Most nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ) models include biogeochemistry but simulate zooplankton to achieve realistic chlorophyll and nutrient dynamics. End-to-end models require NPZ models that represent zooplankton from the perspective of prey for fish and are predictive of the biomass and spatial dynamics of the zooplankton. In addition, many important fish species consume benthos, which are often not included in NPZ models. The second emerging area is the behavioral movement that becomes important when life stages of zooplankton and fish are included that move and migrate unrelated to passive transport. I will discuss recent advances in modeling in both of these emerging areas, with a focus on the new data available for model development and testing. I will include several recent efforts at end-to-end modeling that use 3-D hydrodynamics coupled to NPZ coupled to fish to illustrate these issues and offer potential solutions. These examples include climate effects on sardine and anchovy dynamics in the California Current and prediction of the effects of wide-spread hypoxia on croaker population dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico. |
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