Program

Special Session 5: Ocean-atmosphere interaction, multi-scale climate variability and their implication for biogeochemical processes

Poster

New Perspectives on the sun–ocean–climate connection and long term climatic predictions in the South East Asian Monsoon Region
SS5-14
Anthony Banyouko Ndah* , Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Brunei
Gabriel Yong, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Brunei
Kazimierz Becek, Wroclaw University of Technology, Poland
Lalit Dagar, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Brunei
Presenter Email: tonyban83@gmail.com

For decades, results of climate models and predictions have suggested that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the prime forcing of global temperature rise, a perception that has shaped the contemporary mainstream perception of climate change linked to the increase and accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the global atmosphere. The present study is inspired by the observed decline of SST in the South China Sea (SCS) since 1998 based on the HADSST1 dataset and validated by MSU/AMSU satellite datasets of global tropospheric temperature. This alludes to what has come to be known in mainstream circles as the ‘global warming pause’ or ‘hiatus’. The underlying premise of this study is therefore the need to revisit the role of solar irradiance and in temperature variability and regional climatic changes. In this study therefore, we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between sun-spot numbers (SSN) and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) with surface temperature (SST) of the SCS over the period 1870 to 2013. Analysis is based on the following methods: 1. the use of simple observational methods and mathematical calculations based on graphical results of the Cumulative Deviations Test to uncover the maximum lag; 2). the use of advanced statistical methods including: phase angle of cross-spectrum, coherency and cross-correlation analysis to validate and expatiate on the results of (1) above. 3). Based on the maximum lag between TSI and SST, found to be 41.5 years, a simple yet potentially skillful graphical/predictive model has been developed for long term climate prediction in S.E Asia driven by the effects of long term solar oscillations and ocean thermal response patterns. One of the major outcomes of this study is that: excess heat was stored in the ocean during the modern solar maximum from 1880-1986, with its peak being the decade 1934 and 1944. This is found to have forced the modern warm period from 1929 to 1998, and especially its decadal peak (1977-1987). Being presently in a cool phase of the long term solar cycle, it is thus predicted that cooling in the SCS which is ongoing since 1998 could intensify by 2036, driven by the peak of the ‘modern solar minimum’ (styled ‘Modern Dalton Minimum’) which began since 1986. The predicted outcome may have very significant regional climatic implications, including: potential disruption of rainfall and regional hydro-meteorological patterns, potential increase in frequency and extremity of tropical storms in the tropical pacific due to thermal disequilibrium in the air-sea coupled system. Oscillatory mechanisms of the sun-ocean interaction are also found to be directly linked to cool and warm phases of medium and long term ocean cycles such as ENSO and PDO.