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Special Session 5: Ocean-atmosphere interaction, multi-scale climate variability and their implication for biogeochemical processes |
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Tropical Atlantic variability and predictability - PREFACE project
Tuesday 10th @ 1400-1425
Room 1
Noel Keenlyside* , Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre
Presenter Email: noel.keenlyside@uib.no
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| Our ability to predict tropical Atlantic variability and its major socio-economic impacts remains limited, with current state-of-the-art climate models exhibiting large biases. The PREFACE project – a European Union funded project that brings together scientists in Europe and Africa – is beginning to redress the situation, focusing on the upwelling regions that are important for climate and fisheries. The main aim of this presentation is to summarise key results from the PREFACE relating climate variability, small pelagic fish, and fisheries. Firstly, I will discuss the roles of dynamics and thermodynamics for the Atlantic Niño, and show that some currents forecast systems can skilfully predict Atlantic Niño variations several months in advance. Small pelagic fish along the Angolan coast are affected by these variations, and thus shifts in fish stock may be potentially predictable. Secondly, I will discuss interannual variability in the North Tropical Atlantic, and how it is related to fisheries off West Africa. Here a strong El Niño Southern Oscillation impact may also offer useful predictability of fish stock movements. Lastly, I will discuss work on the impacts of climate change in the region. |
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