Abstract:

A recent study [Liang, Oey, Huang and Chao, 2017 JGR-Atmos] shows that tropical cyclones (TCs) or typhoons over the western north Pacific have tended to re-curve more often in recent decades. These TCs may therefore pose a greater threat to the densely populated region of eastern China, Korea and southwestern Japan if they veer westward and enter the East China Sea. I will show through observations and simple models that, in addition to an upward trend in frequency, these “East China Sea TCs” co-vary at inter-annual and inter-decadal time scales that are closely coupled with the path of the Kuroshio extension off eastern Japan.